A majority of our expert panelists (69%) believe that relatively short-term goals for average CO2 concentrations need to be agreed upon and translated into policy. (±9%, Q6)
Expert Panel Findings - Q4 2014
Press Release — February 24, 2015
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Climate scientists agree with each other more than they think they do on the following key issues:
• Without governmental action, active CO2-emitting infrastructure will continue to increase
• Natural gas is not a silver bullet
• There is little consensus on which are the best measures of climate-change risk
Findings Featured In:
Climate scientists agree on need for global goal
See Also –> Archive of Expert Poll Findings and Forum for Expert Participants
A strong majority of our expert panelists (93%) agree that CO2-emitting infrastructure will continue to expand if uninterrupted by governmental policy. (±5%, Q5)
A majority of our expert panelists (68%) agree that, even under favorable assumptions, abundant natural gas will have little impact on greenhouse gas emissions. (±9%, Q4)
Although most of our expert panelists do not have a strong opinion, there was some disagreement as to whether average global temperature is a good indicator of planetary health (48% believe it is while 41% believe it is not). (±10%, Q1)
Approximately half of our expert panelists (56%) believe that greenhouse gas concentrations are a better measure of planetary health than average global temperatures. (±10%, Q2)
Approximately half of our expert panelists (53%) believe that ocean heat content is a better measure of planetary health than average global temperatures. (±10%, Q3)
Note: The margins of error reported above represent the 95% confidence intervals for the actual proportion of experts who would give such answers, provided they are sampled from the same population as our respondents.
Expert Panel Findings - Q2 2014
For Release – July 23, 2014
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Climate scientists agree with each other more than they think they do on the following key issues:
• Nuclear power is a critical part of a solution
Findings Featured In:
Survey: Climate Experts Favor Retiring Coal, Keeping Nuclear
Climate-change investment should focus on retiring coal
See Also –> Archive of Expert Poll Findings
A majority of our expert panelists (64%) believe that retiring coal-fired power plants would be the most effective use of major investments to limit global warming. A significant minority (22%) would recommend building low-emission products as the top priority. (±9%, Q3)
The vast majority (84%) expect that coal-fired power plants alone will contribute between 25% and 60% of gross carbon emissions to the atmosphere between now and 2020. (±7%, Q2)
A strong majority of our expert panelists (71%) agree that nuclear power is a critical component of any realistic plan to achieve climate stabilization. (±9%, Q5)
There is more skepticism regarding the feasibility of renewables to play a major role in satisfying growing global energy demand. Among our scientific experts, 67% agree that renewables like wind, solar, and biomass will not be able to scale fast enough. (±9%, Q4)
Note: The margins of error reported above represent the 95% confidence intervals for the actual proportion of experts who would give such answers, provided they are sampled from the same population as our respondents.
Expert Panel Findings - Q4 2013
For Release – February 18, 2014
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Climate scientists agree with each other more than they think they do on the following key issues:
• The Wall Street Journal’s interpretation of IPCC AR5 report is not credible
• The latest IPCC (AR5) report may be too optimistic on sea level rise
• Carbon capture and storage not likely to have a short-term impact (before 2050)
• Atmospheric CO2 concentration is likely to double pre-industrial levels by 2100
Findings Featured In:
Vision Prize: scientists are worried the IPCC is underestimating sea level rise
Renewable Power Tops Climate Change Solutions in Expert Survey
Was the IPCC assessment too optimistic on sea-level rise?
See Also –> Archive of Expert Poll Findings
The vast majority of our scientific experts (87%) disagree with Matt Ridley’s statement that the IPCC report’s prediction on equilibrium climate sensitivity “…points to the very real possibility that, over the next several generations, the overall effect of climate change will be positive for humankind and the planet.” (±6%, Q5)
A majority of our expert panelists (71%) believe that it is at least about as likely as not that sea level rise this century will exceed 0.91 meters, the highest level given in the 2013 IPCC report. (±8%, Q3)
On the other extreme, only 5% believe it is likely or very likely that the rise will be less than 0.25 meters, the lowest level given in the report. (±4%, Q4)
Only 16% believe that carbon capture and storage technology will measurably affect the global climate by 2050. (±7%, Q2)
Only 3% would choose carbon capture and storage as a top priority for large private investment attempting to avoid dangerous levels of global warming. (±3%, Q6). See next chart below.
Among our scientific experts, 29% choose distributed renewables, 26% choose energy efficiency, and 17% choose next-generation nuclear power as the top priority for major private investment attempting to avert dangerous levels of global warming. (±8%, Q6)
Approximately half (57%) of our expert panelists believe it is likely or very likely that atmospheric CO2 concentration will double pre-industrial levels by the year 2100 if governmental policies do not change. (±9%, Q1)
NOTES: The margins of error reported above represent the 95% confidence intervals for the actual proportion of experts who would give such answers, provided they are sampled from the same population as our respondents. Consistent with our previous findings, the most common views of our expert participants tend to be even more common than expected.
Expert Panel Findings - Q3 2013
For Release – October 29, 2013
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Experts agree with each other more than they think they do on sea level rise, weather disasters, dramatic warming (if current fossil fuel reserves are burned), promising technologies, and geoengineering.
Findings Featured In:
Climate experts agree with each other more than they think
See Also –> Archive of Expert Poll Findings
Approximately half (59%) of our expert panelists believe that 1 meter of sea level rise will happen by the year 2100 if governmental policies do not change (±10%, Question 1)
Looking into the 2030s, 38% of our expert panelists believe that Africa is more likely than other geographic regions to suffer from weather disasters caused by climate change (±10%, Question 2)
92% of our expert panelists believe that if the world’s current fossil fuel reserves are burned, it is likely or very likely that Earth’s temperature will increase to levels not experienced for millions of years (±5%, Question 3)
68% of our expert panelists selected renewables or energy efficiency as the technology most likely to help significantly slow climate change this century (±9%, Question 4)
88% of our expert panelists believe it is unlikely or very unlikely that solar geoengineering will be deployed at the global scale before 2050 (±7%, Question 5)
NOTES: The margins of error reported above represent the 95% confidence intervals for the actual proportion of experts who would give such answers, provided they are sampled from the same population as our respondents. Consistent with our previous findings, the most common views of our expert participants tend to be even more common than expected.
Expert Panel Findings - Round 2
For Release – July 31, 2013
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Experts agree with each other more than they think they do on global warming affecting U.S. weather, concerns about black carbon emissions, black carbon effect on ice melt, and atmospheric methane (from human activity and thawing permafrost).
See Also –> Archive of Expert Poll Findings
90% of expert panelists somewhat or strongly agree that global warming is affecting the weather in the United States. This compares with 69% of U.S. public opinion.
1 74% somewhat or strongly agree that global warming made the Mississippi River floods in the spring of 2011 worse. This compares with 63% of U.S. public opinion.
1 85% somewhat or strongly agree that global warming made the drought in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 worse. This compares with 69% of U.S. public opinion.
1 89% somewhat or strongly agree global warming made record high summer temperatures in the U.S. in 2011 worse. This compares with 70% of U.S. public opinion.
1
Regarding black carbon emissions by the U.S. in 2030: 38% of expert panelists believe they will increase 25% or more relative to current levels, including only 3% expecting increase of 100% or more
Regarding black carbon emissions by China in 2030: 78% believe they will increase 25% or more relative to current levels, including 29% expecting an increase of 100% or more
- Regarding black carbon on snow radiative forcing in recent years: 0% say it is likely to be below the IPCC range, 20% say it is likely to be above, and 70% say it is likely to be in the upper two-thirds of IPCC range
69% of expert panelists say emissions from human activity between now and 2100 will lead to methane (CH4) concentration in the atmosphere increasing 100ppb or more
72% say emissions from thawing permafrost between now and 2100 will lead to methane (CH4) concentration in the atmosphere increasing 100ppb or more
Three-year data collection for the Vision Prize project ended December 2014, and was run in collaboration with IOP | environmentalresearchweb (IOP). Additional data analysis and visualization is currently underway with research partners and collaborators, including IOP.
Past & Present
• Is global warming affecting US weather? (2013-R2:1)
• Did global warming make Mississippi floods worse? (2013-R2:2)
• Did global warming make Texas drought worse? (2013-R2:3)
• Did global warming make summer heat worse? (2013-R2:4)
• Black carbon effect on snow worse than IPCC estimates? (2013-R2:7)
• Effect of human activity on air and ocean temperatures? (2013-R2:10)
• Human influence on global warming last 250 years? (2012-R1:1)
Future Risks
• Will CO2-emitting infrastructure continue to be built faster than retired? (2014-Q4:5)
• Best measures of climate-change risk? (2014-Q4:1-3)
• Carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants between now and 2020? (2014-Q2:2)
• Will overall effect of climate change be good, as Wall Street Journal suggests? (2013-Q4:5)
• Will atmospheric C02 reach twice historic levels this century? (2013-Q4:1)
• When will atmospheric CO2 exceed 550 ppm? (2012-R1:2)
• Atmospheric methane increases by 2100? (Human activity 2013-R2:8, Thawing permafrost, 2013-R2:9)
• Black carbon emissions in 2030s? (US 2013-R2:5, China 2013-R2:6)
• Temperature if current fossil fuel reserves burned? (2013-Q3:3)
• Temperature if atmospheric CO2 reaches 550 ppm? (2012-R1:3)
• Temperature increase in the year 2050? (2012-R1:4)
• Sea level rise: 2013 IPCC AR5 report too optimistic? (2013-Q4:3), Too pessimistic? (2013-Q4:4)
• Sea level rise of 1m could happen this century (2013-Q3:1)
• Sea level rise greater than 2007 IPCC assessment? (2012-R1:6)
• When will Arctic Sea be ice free? (2012-R1A:1)
• Major US hurricanes in 2010s? (2012-R1:7)
• Major US hurricanes in 2040s? (2012-R1:8)
• Worst weather disasters in 2030s? (2013-Q3:2)
Solutions
• Global goals for atmospheric CO2 concentrations? (2014-Q4:6)
• Will abundant natural gas reduce GHGs? (2014-Q4:4)
• Top investment priorities next 20 years? (2014-Q2:3)
• Top investment priorities next 100 years? (2013-Q4:6)
• Climate stabilization without substantial role for nuclear power? (2014-Q2:5)
• Can renewables scale up fast enough? (2014-Q2:4)
• Carbon capture and storage impact before 2050? (2013-Q4:2)
• Which technologies would most help slow climate change this century? (2013-Q3:4)
• Solar geoengineering in the next three decades? (2013-Q3:5)
• Atmospheric CO2 < 550 ppm with current technology? (2012-R1:9)
